Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Fighting Irish @ Cardinal ND @ STAN

NOTRE DAME

FIGHTING IRISHND

9-4  |  Road

47
FINAL
Tue, Dec 30 • 9:00 PM ET
Maples Pavilion
View Odds Details →

STANFORD

CARDINALSTAN

11-2  |  Home

40
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING IRISH
0%
📊
CARDINAL
100%
FIGHTING IRISH --
CARDINAL --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
NOTRE DAME
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Notre Dame)
Fighting IrishND (-3.5) 0 CardinalSTAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Irish Cover

99.5%

Cardinal Cover

0.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ND -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ND)

ND By 1-7 points

2.7%

ND By 8-14 points

9.3%

STAN By 1-7 points

0.4%

STAN By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
76
NOTRE DAME
50
STANFORD
Simulated Score
68
NOTRE DAME
72
STANFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Fighting Irish Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinal Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Fighting Irish (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim Cardinal (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 STAN @ ND 86 - 78
Dec 30, 2025 ND @ STAN 47 - 40
Mar 5, 2025 STAN @ ND 54 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +11.4% more
Notre Dame: 38.9 vs Stanford: 34.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
Notre Dame: 41.2% vs Stanford: 37.8%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.0%
Notre Dame: 73.1% vs Stanford: 71.1%
Steals (L5) +88.8% more
Stanford: 9.5 vs Notre Dame: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ND Score 76.0 47
STAN Score 50.0 40
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.8 / 41.2 13.0 / 19.0
Assists 13.8 / 12.9 8.0 / 6.0
Blocks 2.2 / 2.3 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 45.5 23.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 71.1 / 73.1 83.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 34.5 / 38.9 36.0 / 48.0
Steals 9.5 / 5.0 6.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 12.6 6.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ND
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
STAN Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ND
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
STAN Advantage
16-16-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ND
22-9-0
O: 71.0% / U: 29.0% Total +/-: +5.0
STAN
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STAN
ND
STAN
ND
ML
48% 16-17
65% 20-11
50% 16-16
77% 24-7
ATS
48% 16-17
55% 17-14
50% 16-16
77% 24-7
TTL
55% 18-15
68% 21-10
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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