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UTAH STATE

AGGIESUSU

10-1  |  Road

72
FINAL
Tue, Dec 30 • 9:00 PM ET
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FRESNO STATE

BULLDOGSFRES

6-6  |  Home

63
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
AGGIES --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
FRESNO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
AggiesUSU (-3.5) 0 BulldogsFRES (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

46.0%

Bulldogs Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FRES +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FRES)

USU By 1-7 points

26.2%

USU By 8-14 points

16.9%

FRES By 1-7 points

24.3%

FRES By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
83
UTAH STATE
82
FRESNO STATE
Simulated Score
68
UTAH STATE
75
FRESNO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Aggies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o155.5 Loss
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 10, 2026 FRES @ USU 78 - 91
Dec 30, 2025 USU @ FRES 72 - 63
Feb 7, 2025 USU @ FRES 89 - 81
Jan 4, 2025 FRES @ USU 83 - 89
Mar 14, 2024 FRES @ USU 75 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +22.5% more
Utah State: 9.0 vs Fresno State: 6.9
Blocks (L5) +21.1% more
Utah State: 2.1 vs Fresno State: 1.7
Assists (L5) +17.9% more
Utah State: 18.6 vs Fresno State: 15.3
Field Goal % (L5) +10.3%
Utah State: 54.0% vs Fresno State: 43.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USU Score 83.0 72
FRES Score 82.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 41.7 23.0 / 25.0
Assists 15.3 / 18.6 8.0 / 12.0
Blocks 1.7 / 2.1 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.7 / 54.0 34.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 77.0 / 70.6 82.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 33.3 / 35.8 34.0 / 41.0
Steals 6.9 / 9.0 12.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 11.5 18.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
20%MONEY80%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USU Advantage
29-7-0 (80.6%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
FRES
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USU
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
FRES Advantage
21-10-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
USU
FRES
USU
ML
59% 19-13
49% 17-18
74% 23-8
66% 21-11
ATS
75% 24-8
74% 26-9
74% 23-8
67% 22-11
TTL
56% 18-14
51% 18-17
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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