SAINT MARY'S
GAELSSMC
12-2 | Road
72
PEPPERDINE
WAVESPEPP
5-9 | Home
45
AI Model Win Probability
GAELS
0%
WAVES
100%
GAELS
--
WAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
SAINT MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Saint Mary's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SMC -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMC)
SMC By 1-7 points
0.3%
SMC By 8-14 points
1.7%
PEPP By 1-7 points
0.0%
PEPP By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Saint Mary's
86
SAINT MARY'S
Pepperdine
51
PEPPERDINE
Simulated Score
Saint Mary's
76
SAINT MARY'S
Pepperdine
68
PEPPERDINE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Gaels
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gaels
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Gaels (+20.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim
Gaels (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 11, 2026
PEPP @ SMC
60 - 88
Dec 30, 2025
SMC @ PEPP
72 - 45
Mar 10, 2025
PEPP @ SMC
59 - 74
Jan 18, 2025
SMC @ PEPP
74 - 50
Jan 2, 2025
PEPP @ SMC
41 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+39.4% more
Saint Mary's: 3.1
vs
Pepperdine: 1.9
Rebounding (L5)
+13.3% more
Saint Mary's: 37.9
vs
Pepperdine: 32.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.0%
Saint Mary's: 78.4%
vs
Pepperdine: 74.4%
Turnovers (L5)
+50.6% more
Pepperdine: 14.8
vs
Saint Mary's: 9.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SMC Score
86.0
72
PEPP Score
51.0
45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.9 / 33.3
17.0 / 35.0
Assists
13.1 / 12.1
13.0 / 13.0
Blocks
1.9 / 3.1
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
42.7 / 43.9
35.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
74.4 / 78.4
75.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
32.8 / 37.9
26.0 / 35.0
Steals
5.2 / 4.5
4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
14.8 / 9.8
13.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMC
Advantage
27-6-0
(81.8%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
PEPP
9-23-0
(28.1%)
Margin: -7.3
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMC
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
PEPP
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -7.3
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.2
PEPP
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PEPP
SMC
PEPP
SMC
ML
62%
20-12
56%
18-14
69%
22-10
82%
23-5
ATS
56%
18-14
62%
20-12
69%
22-10
83%
24-5
TTL
50%
16-16
53%
17-15
100%
32-0
100%
29-0
Contextual Game News
