Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wolf Pack @ Rams NEV @ CSU

NEVADA

WOLF PACKNEV

9-3  |  Road

75
FINAL
Tue, Dec 30 • 9:00 PM ET
Moby Arena
View Odds Details →

COLORADO STATE

RAMSCSU

9-3  |  Home

62
AI Model Win Probability
WOLF PACK
100%
📊
RAMS
0%
WOLF PACK --
RAMS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
COLORADO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Colorado State)
Wolf PackNEV (-3.5) 0 RamsCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wolf Pack Cover

1.8%

Rams Cover

98.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CSU -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSU)

NEV By 1-7 points

1.4%

NEV By 8-14 points

0.2%

CSU By 1-7 points

6.8%

CSU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
63
NEVADA
84
COLORADO STATE
Simulated Score
72
NEVADA
75
COLORADO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rams Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rams Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rams (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Rams (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o141.5 Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 30, 2025 NEV @ CSU 75 - 62
Mar 13, 2025 NEV @ CSU 59 - 67
Feb 18, 2025 NEV @ CSU 71 - 79
Dec 21, 2024 CSU @ NEV 66 - 64
Mar 14, 2024 CSU @ NEV 85 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +62.8% more
Colorado State: 12.2 vs Nevada: 7.5
Assists (L5) +8.5% more
Colorado State: 15.6 vs Nevada: 14.4
Field Goal % (L5) +2.8%
Colorado State: 51.0% vs Nevada: 48.1%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.4%
Colorado State: 79.1% vs Nevada: 76.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NEV Score 63.0 75
CSU Score 84.0 62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.0 / 42.7 25.0 / 36.0
Assists 15.6 / 14.4 10.0 / 9.0
Blocks 1.4 / 3.5 8.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 51.0 / 48.1 37.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 79.1 / 76.7 62.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 28.8 / 31.5 35.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.2 / 7.6 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 7.5 10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEV Advantage
24-13-0 (64.9%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
CSU
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEV Advantage
22-15-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
CSU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2% Total +/-: +2.7
CSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSU
NEV
CSU
NEV
ML
56% 19-15
62% 23-14
65% 20-11
73% 27-10
ATS
62% 21-13
73% 27-10
65% 20-11
73% 27-10
TTL
56% 19-15
49% 18-19
100% 31-0
100% 37-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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