Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Broncos @ Rockets WMU @ TOL

WESTERN MICHIGAN

BRONCOSWMU

6-7  |  Road

79
FINAL
Tue, Dec 30 • 6:30 PM ET
Savage Arena
View Odds Details →

TOLEDO

ROCKETSTOL

6-6  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
100%
📊
ROCKETS
0%
BRONCOS --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
178.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
TOLEDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Toledo)
BroncosWMU (-3.5) 0 RocketsTOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

0.8%

Rockets Cover

99.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOL -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOL)

WMU By 1-7 points

0.6%

WMU By 8-14 points

0.1%

TOL By 1-7 points

4.0%

TOL By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
77
WESTERN MICHIGAN
101
TOLEDO
Simulated Score
69
WESTERN MICHIGAN
78
TOLEDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rockets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockets (-10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Rockets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o160.5 Win
Proj Total: 178.0
D
Sim u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 11, 2026 TOL @ WMU 90 - 79
Dec 30, 2025 WMU @ TOL 79 - 84
Jan 4, 2025 TOL @ WMU 76 - 70
Jan 30, 2024 WMU @ TOL 63 - 88
Jan 6, 2023 WMU @ TOL 74 - 102
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +13.3% more
Toledo: 7.2 vs Western Michigan: 6.4
Free Throw % (L5) +5.8%
Toledo: 79.5% vs Western Michigan: 73.7%
Turnovers (L5) +36.4% more
Western Michigan: 12.5 vs Toledo: 7.9
Assists (L5) +15.9% more
Western Michigan: 16.7 vs Toledo: 14.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WMU Score 77.0 79
TOL Score 101.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.3 / 31.0 16.0 / 35.0
Assists 14.0 / 16.7 10.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.9 / 3.0 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 41.6 / 45.9 43.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 79.5 / 73.7 67.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 33.8 / 38.2 44.0 / 42.0
Steals 7.2 / 6.4 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 7.9 / 12.5 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WMU
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -4.7 ATS +/-: +1.1
TOL Advantage
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WMU
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: -4.7 ATS +/-: +1.1
TOL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
WMU
18-11-0
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9% Total +/-: +1.3
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOL
WMU
TOL
WMU
ML
48% 16-17
60% 18-12
61% 20-13
70% 21-9
ATS
48% 16-17
67% 20-10
61% 20-13
70% 21-9
TTL
64% 21-12
57% 17-13
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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