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WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

0-2  |  Road

121
FINAL
Mon, Oct 28 • 7:30 PM ET
State Farm Arena
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

HAWKSATL

2-1  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
0%
📊
HAWKS
100%
WIZARDS --
HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
188.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.8
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.8 points (Washington)
WizardsWSH (-3.5) 0 HawksATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wizards Cover

72.0%

Hawks Cover

28.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WSH -5.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1-7 points

26.9%

WSH By 8-14 points

24.1%

ATL By 1-7 points

17.2%

ATL By 8-14 points

7.0%

AI Model Projected Score
97.25
WASHINGTON
91.41
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
WASHINGTON
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wizards Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wizards (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.8
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 188.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 WSH @ ATL 96 - 126
Feb 24, 2026 WSH @ ATL 98 - 119
Dec 6, 2025 ATL @ WSH 131 - 116
Nov 25, 2025 ATL @ WSH 113 - 132
Feb 8, 2025 ATL @ WSH 125 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +16.7% more
Washington: 6.8 vs Atlanta: 5.6
Steals (L5) +27.4% more
Atlanta: 9.3 vs Washington: 7.3
Free Throw % (L5) +2.9%
Atlanta: 80.2% vs Washington: 77.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 97.3 121
ATL Score 91.4 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 32.8 37.5 / 47.7
Assists 25.6 / 26.4 32.0 / 24.0
Blocks 5.6 / 6.8 7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.0 / 43.6 48.1 / 45.1
Free Throw % 80.2 / 77.3 72.2 / 81.8
Rebounding 44.4 / 42.1 39.0 / 43.0
Steals 9.3 / 7.3 12.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 17.5 / 16.7 16.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
ATL Advantage
48-40-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
ATL Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
WSH
ATL
WSH
ML
50% 52-52
70% 112-49
55% 48-40
47% 39-44
ATS
53% 55-48-1
69% 111-49-1
55% 48-40
47% 39-44
TTL
53% 55-48-1
74% 119-41-1
100% 88-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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