HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
1-2 | Road
106
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
1-1 | Home
101
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
SPURS
100%
ROCKETS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
207.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.9
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.9 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -4.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-7 points
27.3%
HOU By 8-14 points
22.9%
SA By 1-7 points
18.7%
SA By 8-14 points
8.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
106.32
HOUSTON
San Antonio
101.42
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Houston
HOUSTON
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.9
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 207.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
HOU @ SA
120 - 145
Jan 28, 2026
SA @ HOU
111 - 99
Jan 20, 2026
SA @ HOU
106 - 111
Nov 7, 2025
HOU @ SA
110 - 121
Feb 26, 2025
SA @ HOU
106 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+21.1% more
Houston: 9.0
vs
San Antonio: 7.1
Assists (L5)
+26.7% more
San Antonio: 28.0
vs
Houston: 22.1
Turnovers (L5)
+21.7% more
San Antonio: 16.9
vs
Houston: 13.9
Blocks (L5)
+21.4% more
San Antonio: 4.9
vs
Houston: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
106.3
106
SA Score
101.4
101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.8 / 33.7
30.3 / 40.5
Assists
28.0 / 22.1
22.0 / 20.0
Blocks
4.9 / 4.1
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
47.9 / 43.2
42.5 / 41.2
Free Throw %
77.1 / 73.9
81.0 / 87.5
Rebounding
47.2 / 47.7
49.0 / 43.0
Steals
7.1 / 9.0
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
16.9 / 13.9
17.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
HOU
SA
HOU
ML
60%
111-73
61%
69-44
58%
61-44
59%
51-35
ATS
58%
107-76-1
62%
70-43
58%
61-44
59%
51-35
TTL
74%
134-47-3
51%
58-55
100%
105-0
100%
86-0
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