UTAH
JAZZUTAH
0-2 | Road
102
DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
1-1 | Home
110
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
100%
MAVERICKS
0%
JAZZ
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
203.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
UTAH By 1-7 points
23.7%
UTAH By 8-14 points
12.9%
DAL By 1-7 points
26.6%
DAL By 8-14 points
17.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Utah
100.75
UTAH
Dallas
102.26
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Utah
UTAH
Dallas
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.5
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 203.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
UTAH @ DAL
120 - 138
Jan 15, 2026
UTAH @ DAL
122 - 144
Jan 8, 2026
DAL @ UTAH
114 - 116
Dec 15, 2025
DAL @ UTAH
133 - 140
Oct 13, 2025
DAL @ UTAH
114 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+15.3% more
Dallas: 23.0
vs
Utah: 19.9
Steals (L5)
+11.6% more
Dallas: 7.6
vs
Utah: 6.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.8%
Dallas: 34.8%
vs
Utah: 30.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.5%
Dallas: 43.0%
vs
Utah: 40.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score
100.8
102
DAL Score
102.3
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.8 / 30.0
28.2 / 28.6
Assists
23.0 / 19.9
27.0 / 24.0
Blocks
5.0 / 7.3
12.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
43.0 / 40.5
45.3 / 37.0
Free Throw %
77.2 / 76.0
76.5 / 82.8
Rebounding
46.3 / 45.6
50.0 / 50.0
Steals
7.6 / 6.8
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 21.2
14.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
DAL
Advantage
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH
Advantage
41-41-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2%
Total +/-: +5.7
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
UTAH
DAL
UTAH
ML
62%
63-39
60%
96-63
54%
44-37
48%
40-43
ATS
67%
68-34
68%
108-51
54%
44-37
48%
40-43
TTL
59%
60-41-1
75%
119-39-1
100%
81-0
100%
83-0
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