ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
2-2 | Road
120
WASHINGTON
WIZARDSWSH
1-2 | Home
133
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
WIZARDS
0%
HAWKS
--
WIZARDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
196.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.5
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WSH -4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
ATL By 1-7 points
19.4%
ATL By 8-14 points
8.7%
WSH By 1-7 points
27.3%
WSH By 8-14 points
22.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
96.11
ATLANTA
Washington
100.58
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Atlanta
ATLANTA
Washington
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wizards
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Wizards (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.5
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 196.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
WSH @ ATL
96 - 126
Feb 24, 2026
WSH @ ATL
98 - 119
Dec 6, 2025
ATL @ WSH
131 - 116
Nov 25, 2025
ATL @ WSH
113 - 132
Feb 8, 2025
ATL @ WSH
125 - 111
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.8%
Washington: 37.7%
vs
Atlanta: 34.9%
Steals (L5)
+29.4% more
Atlanta: 10.2
vs
Washington: 7.2
Blocks (L5)
+9.5% more
Atlanta: 6.1
vs
Washington: 5.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
96.1
120
WSH Score
100.6
133
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.7 / 34.9
42.1 / 30.8
Assists
25.6 / 27.7
32.0 / 28.0
Blocks
5.5 / 6.1
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.1 / 45.4
52.8 / 47.4
Free Throw %
78.8 / 77.5
92.0 / 85.7
Rebounding
42.4 / 42.6
37.0 / 41.0
Steals
7.2 / 10.2
10.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
17.1 / 17.0
16.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
WSH
17-65-0
(20.7%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
WSH
33-49-0
(40.2%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
ATL
WSH
ATL
ML
70%
112-49
50%
52-52
47%
39-44
55%
48-40
ATS
69%
111-49-1
53%
55-48-1
47%
39-44
55%
48-40
TTL
74%
119-41-1
53%
55-48-1
100%
83-0
100%
88-0
Contextual Game News
ATLAS League Launches to Crown World Champion in High School Bas…
Bill Self's Revamped Kansas Roster Built for Another National Ti…
Hawks Look to Bounce Back Against Spurs in Preseason Clash
Anthony Davis's Max Contract Ambitions Could Shape Wizards' Futu…
Zach Edey to Sit Out Grizzlies' Preseason Opener vs. Hawks, Team…