NEW YORK
KNICKSNY
1-2 | Road
116
MIAMI
HEATMIA
2-1 | Home
107
AI Model Win Probability
KNICKS
100%
HEAT
0%
KNICKS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
215.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
NY By 1-7 points
24.5%
NY By 8-14 points
14.0%
MIA By 1-7 points
26.1%
MIA By 8-14 points
16.7%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
107.39
NEW YORK
Miami
108.23
MIAMI
Simulated Score
New York
NEW YORK
Miami
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -0.8
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 215.6
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 21, 2025
MIA @ NY
125 - 132
Nov 17, 2025
NY @ MIA
113 - 115
Nov 14, 2025
MIA @ NY
132 - 140
Oct 26, 2025
NY @ MIA
107 - 115
Mar 17, 2025
MIA @ NY
95 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+83.3% more
Miami: 11.3
vs
New York: 6.2
Assists (L5)
+28.0% more
Miami: 27.5
vs
New York: 21.5
Blocks (L5)
+23.5% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
New York: 3.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.9%
New York: 80.2%
vs
Miami: 74.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NY Score
107.4
116
MIA Score
108.2
107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.8 / 34.7
42.5 / 45.0
Assists
27.5 / 21.5
27.0 / 30.0
Blocks
4.4 / 3.6
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
44.2 / 47.7
45.7 / 48.8
Free Throw %
74.3 / 80.2
66.7 / 90.0
Rebounding
42.7 / 42.4
39.0 / 42.0
Steals
11.3 / 6.2
6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.6 / 13.8
10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NY
Advantage
70-32-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.5
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NY
Advantage
58-44-0
(56.9%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.5
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NY
47-55-0
O: 46.1% / U: 53.9%
Total +/-: -1.4
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
NY
MIA
NY
ML
48%
46-50
61%
114-72
59%
48-34
56%
57-45
ATS
51%
49-47
67%
124-62
59%
48-34
56%
57-45
TTL
59%
57-39
72%
133-53
100%
82-0
100%
102-0
Contextual Game News
Tyler Kolek's Girlfriend Spills: Knicks Parade Police Mix-Up Hap…
Adam Fox Quietly Dominating as Rangers Surge Early in 2026-27
Anonymous NBA Scout Shuts Down JJ Redick's Lakers Title Hopes wi…
Heat's Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo: Can Miami Make It …
Miami Heat Attempt 40 3-Pointers in a Single Half During Intrasq…