NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
2-2 | Road
89
GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
3-1 | Home
104
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
WARRIORS
0%
PELICANS
--
WARRIORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
207.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.5
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 points (Golden State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -8.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)
NO By 1-7 points
12.9%
NO By 8-14 points
4.4%
GS By 1-7 points
24.8%
GS By 8-14 points
26.6%
AI Model Projected Score
New Orleans
99.65
NEW ORLEANS
Golden State
108.18
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
New Orleans
NEW ORLEANS
Golden State
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Warriors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Warriors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.5
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 207.8
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 24, 2026
GS @ NO
109 - 113
Nov 29, 2025
NO @ GS
96 - 104
Nov 16, 2025
GS @ NO
124 - 106
Mar 28, 2025
GS @ NO
111 - 95
Nov 22, 2024
GS @ NO
112 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+51.9% more
Golden State: 12.6
vs
New Orleans: 8.3
Assists (L5)
+30.8% more
Golden State: 30.9
vs
New Orleans: 23.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.5%
Golden State: 39.9%
vs
New Orleans: 34.4%
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.4%
Golden State: 78.5%
vs
New Orleans: 76.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NO Score
99.7
89
GS Score
108.2
104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.9 / 34.4
34.2 / 30.6
Assists
30.9 / 23.6
32.0 / 24.0
Blocks
6.8 / 6.8
9.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
47.5 / 46.6
47.1 / 36.7
Free Throw %
78.5 / 76.1
69.2 / 60.0
Rebounding
45.1 / 42.6
42.0 / 49.0
Steals
12.6 / 8.3
5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
14.5 / 18.2
14.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
GS
Advantage
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
NO
GS
NO
ML
55%
95-79
62%
98-61
58%
49-35
58%
48-35
ATS
58%
101-73
68%
107-51-1
58%
49-35
58%
48-35
TTL
77%
134-40
75%
119-40
100%
84-0
100%
83-0
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