UTAH
JAZZUTAH
0-5 | Road
103
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
2-3 | Home
129
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
100%
NUGGETS
0%
JAZZ
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
202.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.6
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.6 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -9.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
UTAH By 1-7 points
11.3%
UTAH By 8-14 points
3.6%
DEN By 1-7 points
23.5%
DEN By 8-14 points
27.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Utah
96.5
UTAH
Denver
106.1
DENVER
Simulated Score
Utah
UTAH
Denver
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.6
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 202.6
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
DEN @ UTAH
130 - 117
Mar 27, 2026
UTAH @ DEN
129 - 135
Mar 2, 2026
DEN @ UTAH
128 - 125
Dec 22, 2025
UTAH @ DEN
112 - 135
Mar 28, 2025
UTAH @ DEN
93 - 129
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+36.1% more
Denver: 28.8
vs
Utah: 21.1
Steals (L5)
+23.1% more
Denver: 8.1
vs
Utah: 6.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+12.1%
Denver: 39.1%
vs
Utah: 26.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.9%
Denver: 46.2%
vs
Utah: 39.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score
96.5
103
DEN Score
106.1
129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.1 / 26.9
50.0 / 31.0
Assists
28.8 / 21.1
33.0 / 24.0
Blocks
3.9 / 5.8
1.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 39.2
48.5 / 41.6
Free Throw %
78.9 / 83.7
73.9 / 83.9
Rebounding
45.9 / 47.9
52.0 / 39.0
Steals
8.1 / 6.6
14.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.0 / 21.0
18.0 / 24.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH
41-41-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2%
Total +/-: +5.7
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
UTAH
DEN
UTAH
ML
54%
57-48
60%
96-63
55%
47-39
48%
40-43
ATS
63%
65-38-2
68%
108-51
55%
47-39
48%
40-43
TTL
54%
56-48-1
75%
119-39-1
100%
86-0
100%
83-0
Contextual Game News
Tyler Kolek's Girlfriend Spills: Knicks Parade Police Mix-Up Hap…
Donovan Mitchell Sounds Off on Ring Culture Disrespect Toward Ja…
Caleb Wilson's Bulls Debut: Rookie Brings Bold Talk and Mixed Re…
Mike Breen Issues Apology After LeBron James Shoots Down Embiid …
Anonymous NBA Scout Shuts Down JJ Redick's Lakers Title Hopes wi…