ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
2-4 | Road
126
NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
3-3 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
PELICANS
100%
HAWKS
--
PELICANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
206.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-7 points
26.2%
ATL By 8-14 points
16.9%
NO By 1-7 points
24.3%
NO By 8-14 points
13.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
103.58
ATLANTA
New Orleans
102.63
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
Atlanta
ATLANTA
New Orleans
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 206.2
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 7, 2026
NO @ ATL
100 - 117
Nov 22, 2025
ATL @ NO
115 - 98
Dec 2, 2024
NO @ ATL
112 - 124
Nov 3, 2024
ATL @ NO
126 - 111
Mar 10, 2024
NO @ ATL
116 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+16.1% more
Atlanta: 9.4
vs
New Orleans: 7.9
Assists (L5)
+11.9% more
Atlanta: 28.5
vs
New Orleans: 25.2
Turnovers (L5)
+10.0% more
Atlanta: 15.7
vs
New Orleans: 14.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.0%
Atlanta: 79.4%
vs
New Orleans: 73.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
103.6
126
NO Score
102.6
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.0 / 35.0
42.1 / 41.7
Assists
25.2 / 28.5
22.0 / 29.0
Blocks
5.7 / 4.7
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.1 / 45.6
43.3 / 56.8
Free Throw %
73.4 / 79.4
85.0 / 91.7
Rebounding
45.2 / 41.4
43.0 / 41.0
Steals
7.9 / 9.4
6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
14.1 / 15.7
18.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
ATL
NO
ATL
ML
62%
98-61
50%
52-52
58%
48-35
55%
48-40
ATS
68%
107-51-1
53%
55-48-1
58%
48-35
55%
48-40
TTL
75%
119-40
53%
55-48-1
100%
83-0
100%
88-0
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