Home / NBA Projections NBA / Trail Blazers @ Pelicans POR @ NO

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

2-5  |  Road

118
FINAL
Mon, Nov 4 • 9:30 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

3-4  |  Home

100
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
📊
PELICANS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
207.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.4
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.4 points (New Orleans)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

20.2%

Pelicans Cover

79.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NO -8.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

POR By 1-7 points

13.2%

POR By 8-14 points

4.5%

NO By 1-7 points

25.0%

NO By 8-14 points

26.5%

AI Model Projected Score
99.66
PORTLAND
108.01
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
PORTLAND
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pelicans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pelicans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.4
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 207.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 2, 2026 NO @ POR 106 - 118
Jan 2, 2026 POR @ NO 122 - 109
Dec 11, 2025 POR @ NO 120 - 143
Nov 12, 2025 POR @ NO 125 - 117
Jan 8, 2025 POR @ NO 119 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +16.1% more
New Orleans: 15.4 vs Portland: 13.3
Assists (L5) +14.5% more
New Orleans: 24.1 vs Portland: 21.0
Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
New Orleans: 44.5% vs Portland: 40.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.2%
New Orleans: 37.4% vs Portland: 35.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 99.7 118
NO Score 108.0 100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.4 / 35.2 28.6 / 34.5
Assists 24.1 / 21.0 24.0 / 21.0
Blocks 4.8 / 5.5 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.5 / 40.7 45.2 / 54.8
Free Throw % 77.3 / 78.2 87.5 / 66.7
Rebounding 44.4 / 47.6 34.0 / 38.0
Steals 7.3 / 8.8 5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 15.4 / 13.3 16.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
POR
NO
POR
ML
62% 98-61
53% 56-49
58% 48-35
55% 49-40
ATS
68% 107-51-1
62% 65-39-1
58% 48-35
55% 49-40
TTL
75% 119-40
56% 58-46-1
100% 83-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
dallasnews 35 minutes ago
ATLAS League Launches to Crown World Champion in High School Bas…
yahoo 51 minutes ago
Bill Self's Revamped Kansas Roster Built for Another National Ti…
si 6 hours, 31 minutes ago
Luka Doncic Embraces Lakers Legacy: 'It's an Honor, Not Pressure…
yahoo 6 hours, 42 minutes ago
Boston Celtics' Young Wings Face Huge Opportunity After Jaylen B…
yahoo 6 hours, 46 minutes ago