CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
8-0 | Road
131
NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
3-5 | Home
122
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
0%
PELICANS
100%
CAVALIERS
--
PELICANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.4
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.4 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CLE -3.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-7 points
27.3%
CLE By 8-14 points
20.7%
NO By 1-7 points
21.1%
NO By 8-14 points
10.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
113.16
CLEVELAND
New Orleans
109.78
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
Cleveland
CLEVELAND
New Orleans
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cavaliers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cavaliers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.4
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 222.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 21, 2026
CLE @ NO
111 - 106
Dec 23, 2025
NO @ CLE
118 - 141
Nov 20, 2024
NO @ CLE
100 - 128
Nov 6, 2024
CLE @ NO
131 - 122
Mar 13, 2024
CLE @ NO
116 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+22.7% more
Cleveland: 8.4
vs
New Orleans: 6.5
Assists (L5)
+15.9% more
Cleveland: 28.6
vs
New Orleans: 24.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.1%
Cleveland: 41.5%
vs
New Orleans: 34.5%
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.9%
Cleveland: 50.6%
vs
New Orleans: 44.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
113.2
131
NO Score
109.8
122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.5 / 41.5
48.1 / 48.6
Assists
24.1 / 28.6
21.0 / 33.0
Blocks
4.2 / 3.8
8.0 / 10.0
Field Goal %
44.7 / 50.6
47.7 / 54.2
Free Throw %
80.7 / 67.8
89.3 / 76.9
Rebounding
41.0 / 42.2
33.0 / 46.0
Steals
6.5 / 8.4
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
15.6 / 10.9
10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
CLE
NO
CLE
ML
62%
98-61
60%
69-46
58%
48-35
56%
55-44
ATS
68%
107-51-1
67%
75-37-3
58%
48-35
56%
55-44
TTL
75%
119-40
59%
68-47
100%
83-0
100%
99-0
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