PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
3-5 | Road
105
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
3-5 | Home
118
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
SPURS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
217.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.3
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.3 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -7.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
POR By 1-7 points
14.9%
POR By 8-14 points
5.5%
SA By 1-7 points
26.0%
SA By 8-14 points
25.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland
105.13
PORTLAND
San Antonio
112.41
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Portland
PORTLAND
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spurs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.3
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 217.5
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 28, 2026
POR @ SA
95 - 114
Apr 26, 2026
SA @ POR
114 - 93
Apr 24, 2026
SA @ POR
120 - 108
Apr 21, 2026
POR @ SA
106 - 103
Apr 19, 2026
POR @ SA
98 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+28.2% more
San Antonio: 16.5
vs
Portland: 12.9
Blocks (L5)
+27.1% more
San Antonio: 6.8
vs
Portland: 5.3
Assists (L5)
+12.4% more
San Antonio: 23.6
vs
Portland: 21.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.4%
San Antonio: 80.7%
vs
Portland: 74.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
POR Score
105.1
105
SA Score
112.4
118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.9 / 34.9
41.0 / 28.1
Assists
23.6 / 21.0
35.0 / 23.0
Blocks
6.8 / 5.3
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.2 / 45.4
53.7 / 47.7
Free Throw %
80.7 / 74.4
77.8 / 63.6
Rebounding
44.1 / 44.4
45.0 / 41.0
Steals
7.9 / 9.2
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
16.5 / 12.9
16.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
POR
SA
POR
ML
60%
111-73
53%
56-49
58%
61-44
55%
49-40
ATS
58%
107-76-1
62%
65-39-1
58%
61-44
55%
49-40
TTL
74%
134-47-3
56%
58-46-1
100%
105-0
100%
89-0
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