WASHINGTON
WIZARDSWSH
2-4 | Road
104
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
5-4 | Home
128
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
100%
GRIZZLIES
0%
WIZARDS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.1
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.1 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -5.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
WSH By 1-7 points
18.4%
WSH By 8-14 points
7.9%
MEM By 1-7 points
27.2%
MEM By 8-14 points
23.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
109.28
WASHINGTON
Memphis
114.38
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Washington
WASHINGTON
Memphis
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.1
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 223.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 28, 2025
MEM @ WSH
112 - 116
Dec 20, 2025
WSH @ MEM
130 - 122
Dec 8, 2024
MEM @ WSH
140 - 112
Nov 8, 2024
WSH @ MEM
104 - 128
Mar 12, 2024
WSH @ MEM
97 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+26.4% more
Memphis: 17.0
vs
Washington: 13.5
Rebounding (L5)
+11.9% more
Memphis: 48.7
vs
Washington: 43.5
Assists (L5)
+9.3% more
Memphis: 29.6
vs
Washington: 27.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.0%
Memphis: 38.6%
vs
Washington: 29.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
109.3
104
MEM Score
114.4
128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.6 / 29.6
32.6 / 25.7
Assists
29.6 / 27.1
30.0 / 27.0
Blocks
6.0 / 7.3
10.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
50.3 / 44.8
47.4 / 40.9
Free Throw %
77.2 / 81.4
88.0 / 82.6
Rebounding
48.7 / 43.5
50.0 / 41.0
Steals
6.3 / 7.6
10.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
17.0 / 13.5
19.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0
(20.7%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
MEM
Advantage
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0
(40.2%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
MEM
Advantage
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
WSH
MEM
WSH
ML
57%
59-44
70%
112-49
50%
41-41
47%
39-44
ATS
63%
65-38
69%
111-49-1
50%
41-41
47%
39-44
TTL
70%
71-31-1
74%
119-41-1
100%
82-0
100%
83-0
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