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NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

3-8  |  Road

88
FINAL
Wed, Nov 13 • 7:30 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

9-2  |  Home

106
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
PELICANS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.1
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.1 points (Oklahoma City)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

4.4%

Thunder Cover

95.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -17.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

NO By 1-7 points

3.2%

NO By 8-14 points

0.6%

OKC By 1-7 points

12.0%

OKC By 8-14 points

22.9%

AI Model Projected Score
101.67
NEW ORLEANS
118.78
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
NEW ORLEANS
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.1
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 220.5
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 27, 2026 NO @ OKC 95 - 104
Nov 17, 2025 OKC @ NO 126 - 109
Nov 2, 2025 NO @ OKC 106 - 137
Apr 13, 2025 OKC @ NO 115 - 100
Feb 10, 2025 NO @ OKC 101 - 137
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +48.2% more
Oklahoma City: 5.9 vs New Orleans: 4.0
Steals (L5) +19.4% more
Oklahoma City: 11.6 vs New Orleans: 9.7
Assists (L5) +11.2% more
Oklahoma City: 27.3 vs New Orleans: 24.6
Field Goal % (L5) +4.5%
Oklahoma City: 48.2% vs New Orleans: 43.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 101.7 88
OKC Score 118.8 106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 35.6 38.5 / 24.3
Assists 27.3 / 24.6 20.0 / 21.0
Blocks 5.9 / 4.0 7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 48.2 / 43.7 44.3 / 39.5
Free Throw % 86.1 / 86.0 81.3 / 64.7
Rebounding 38.0 / 38.9 31.0 / 58.0
Steals 11.6 / 9.7 16.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 13.3 7.0 / 24.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
NO
OKC
NO
ML
70% 80-34
62% 98-61
48% 46-49
58% 48-35
ATS
73% 83-30-1
68% 107-51-1
48% 46-49
58% 48-35
TTL
67% 76-38
75% 119-40
100% 95-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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