Home / NBA Projections NBA / Nuggets @ Pelicans DEN @ NO

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

7-3  |  Road

94
FINAL
Fri, Nov 15 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

3-9  |  Home

101
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
📊
PELICANS
100%
NUGGETS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
217.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.4
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.4 points (Denver)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

67.1%

Pelicans Cover

32.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -4.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

DEN By 1-7 points

27.3%

DEN By 8-14 points

22.2%

NO By 1-7 points

19.5%

NO By 8-14 points

8.7%

AI Model Projected Score
111
DENVER
106.57
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
DENVER
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nuggets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nuggets (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.4
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 217.6
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 13, 2026 DEN @ NO 122 - 116
Nov 19, 2025 DEN @ NO 125 - 118
Oct 29, 2025 NO @ DEN 88 - 122
Feb 5, 2025 NO @ DEN 119 - 144
Feb 3, 2025 NO @ DEN 113 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +30.7% more
Denver: 33.8 vs New Orleans: 23.4
Blocks (L5) +23.7% more
Denver: 5.2 vs New Orleans: 4.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +13.5%
Denver: 45.4% vs New Orleans: 31.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +9.4%
Denver: 51.7% vs New Orleans: 42.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 111.0 94
NO Score 106.6 101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.8 / 45.4 31.4 / 27.0
Assists 23.4 / 33.8 21.0 / 26.0
Blocks 4.0 / 5.2 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 42.3 / 51.7 42.5 / 42.5
Free Throw % 78.9 / 76.5 88.9 / 90.9
Rebounding 45.3 / 45.6 56.0 / 38.0
Steals 7.5 / 7.2 4.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 16.9 / 14.6 15.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
DEN
NO
DEN
ML
62% 98-61
54% 57-48
58% 48-35
55% 47-39
ATS
68% 107-51-1
63% 65-38-2
58% 48-35
55% 47-39
TTL
75% 119-40
54% 56-48-1
100% 83-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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