Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Pelicans LAL @ NO

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

8-4  |  Road

104
FINAL
Sat, Nov 16 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

4-9  |  Home

99
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
0%
📊
PELICANS
100%
LAKERS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
213.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.4
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.4 points (Los Angeles)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

70.4%

Pelicans Cover

29.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LAL -5.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

LAL By 1-7 points

27.1%

LAL By 8-14 points

23.5%

NO By 1-7 points

18.0%

NO By 8-14 points

7.6%

AI Model Projected Score
109.56
LOS ANGELES
104.21
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
LOS ANGELES
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lakers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.4
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 213.8
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 NO @ LAL 101 - 110
Jan 6, 2026 LAL @ NO 111 - 103
Nov 30, 2025 NO @ LAL 121 - 133
Nov 14, 2025 LAL @ NO 118 - 104
Apr 4, 2025 NO @ LAL 108 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +20.3% more
Los Angeles: 7.9 vs New Orleans: 6.3
Assists (L5) +19.8% more
Los Angeles: 28.2 vs New Orleans: 22.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.1%
Los Angeles: 41.8% vs New Orleans: 31.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +7.2%
Los Angeles: 49.6% vs New Orleans: 42.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 109.6 104
NO Score 104.2 99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.7 / 41.8 37.9 / 30.0
Assists 22.6 / 28.2 24.0 / 24.0
Blocks 4.3 / 4.5 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.4 / 49.6 42.2 / 43.8
Free Throw % 82.2 / 77.9 78.3 / 77.8
Rebounding 48.9 / 40.1 50.0 / 43.0
Steals 6.3 / 7.9 7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 16.3 / 12.6 17.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
LAL
NO
LAL
ML
62% 98-61
61% 68-43
58% 48-35
54% 49-42
ATS
68% 107-51-1
61% 67-43-1
58% 48-35
54% 49-42
TTL
75% 119-40
61% 66-43-2
100% 83-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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