SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
6-7 | Road
93
DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
5-7 | Home
110
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
MAVERICKS
0%
SPURS
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.2
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.2 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -8.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
SA By 1-7 points
13.5%
SA By 8-14 points
4.7%
DAL By 1-7 points
25.2%
DAL By 8-14 points
26.3%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
108.11
SAN ANTONIO
Dallas
116.26
DALLAS
Simulated Score
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Dallas
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 224.4
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 10, 2026
DAL @ SA
120 - 139
Feb 7, 2026
DAL @ SA
125 - 138
Feb 5, 2026
SA @ DAL
135 - 123
Oct 22, 2025
SA @ DAL
125 - 92
Mar 12, 2025
DAL @ SA
116 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+21.5% more
Dallas: 8.2
vs
San Antonio: 6.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.7%
Dallas: 51.0%
vs
San Antonio: 49.3%
Assists (L5)
+19.5% more
San Antonio: 32.0
vs
Dallas: 25.7
Blocks (L5)
+13.3% more
San Antonio: 6.1
vs
Dallas: 5.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
108.1
93
DAL Score
116.3
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.1 / 39.4
25.8 / 27.5
Assists
25.7 / 32.0
26.0 / 21.0
Blocks
5.3 / 6.1
7.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
51.0 / 49.3
46.8 / 31.8
Free Throw %
76.6 / 81.8
77.8 / 86.7
Rebounding
37.8 / 40.9
53.0 / 45.0
Steals
8.2 / 6.7
9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
14.9 / 14.2
15.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
SA
DAL
SA
ML
62%
63-39
60%
111-73
54%
44-37
58%
61-44
ATS
67%
68-34
58%
107-76-1
54%
44-37
58%
61-44
TTL
59%
60-41-1
74%
134-47-3
100%
81-0
100%
105-0
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