Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Mavericks NO @ DAL

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

4-10  |  Road

91
FINAL
Tue, Nov 19 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

7-7  |  Home

132
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
PELICANS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
216.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Dallas)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

40.0%

Mavericks Cover

60.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

NO By 1-7 points

22.3%

NO By 8-14 points

11.4%

DAL By 1-7 points

27.1%

DAL By 8-14 points

19.4%

AI Model Projected Score
107.05
NEW ORLEANS
109.58
DALLAS
Simulated Score
NEW ORLEANS
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.5
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 216.6
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 16, 2026 DAL @ NO 111 - 129
Dec 22, 2025 DAL @ NO 113 - 119
Nov 21, 2025 NO @ DAL 115 - 118
Nov 5, 2025 NO @ DAL 101 - 99
Feb 21, 2025 NO @ DAL 103 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +32.0% more
Dallas: 5.6 vs New Orleans: 4.2
Field Goal % (L5) +6.6%
Dallas: 49.0% vs New Orleans: 42.3%
Free Throw % (L5) +1.8%
New Orleans: 80.9% vs Dallas: 79.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 107.1 91
DAL Score 109.6 132
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 33.8 45.2 / 34.4
Assists 23.2 / 23.1 26.0 / 19.0
Blocks 5.6 / 4.2 7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.0 / 42.3 52.1 / 39.7
Free Throw % 79.1 / 80.9 80.0 / 85.7
Rebounding 46.2 / 49.2 48.0 / 37.0
Steals 7.0 / 6.5 12.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 15.3 / 16.5 12.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
NO
DAL
NO
ML
62% 63-39
62% 98-61
54% 44-37
58% 48-35
ATS
67% 68-34
68% 107-51-1
54% 44-37
58% 48-35
TTL
59% 60-41-1
75% 119-40
100% 81-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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