OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
11-3 | Road
104
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
6-8 | Home
110
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
SPURS
100%
THUNDER
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.4
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.4 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -6.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
OKC By 1-7 points
26.6%
OKC By 8-14 points
24.7%
SA By 1-7 points
16.3%
SA By 8-14 points
6.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma City
115.65
OKLAHOMA CITY
San Antonio
109.26
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Oklahoma City
OKLAHOMA CITY
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Thunder
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Thunder (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.4
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 224.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 30, 2026
SA @ OKC
111 - 103
May 28, 2026
OKC @ SA
91 - 118
May 26, 2026
SA @ OKC
114 - 127
May 24, 2026
OKC @ SA
82 - 103
May 22, 2026
OKC @ SA
123 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+27.6% more
Oklahoma City: 10.8
vs
San Antonio: 7.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.6%
Oklahoma City: 46.1%
vs
San Antonio: 43.5%
Turnovers (L5)
+39.3% more
San Antonio: 13.5
vs
Oklahoma City: 9.7
Rebounding (L5)
+13.4% more
San Antonio: 42.3
vs
Oklahoma City: 37.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKC Score
115.7
104
SA Score
109.3
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.4 / 33.5
41.3 / 30.2
Assists
28.3 / 25.4
32.0 / 24.0
Blocks
7.1 / 6.9
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
43.5 / 46.1
47.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
83.4 / 83.9
68.4 / 85.7
Rebounding
42.3 / 37.3
46.0 / 47.0
Steals
7.8 / 10.8
5.0 / 16.0
Turnovers
13.5 / 9.7
21.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
SA
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
OKC
SA
OKC
ML
60%
111-73
70%
80-34
58%
61-44
48%
46-49
ATS
58%
107-76-1
73%
83-30-1
58%
61-44
48%
46-49
TTL
74%
134-47-3
67%
76-38
100%
105-0
100%
95-0
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