NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
4-11 | Road
100
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
15-1 | Home
128
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
CAVALIERS
0%
PELICANS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.5
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.5 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLE -15.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
NO By 1-7 points
4.4%
NO By 8-14 points
0.9%
CLE By 1-7 points
14.5%
CLE By 8-14 points
24.8%
AI Model Projected Score
New Orleans
102.68
NEW ORLEANS
Cleveland
118.18
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
New Orleans
NEW ORLEANS
Cleveland
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cavaliers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.5
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 220.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 21, 2026
CLE @ NO
111 - 106
Dec 23, 2025
NO @ CLE
118 - 141
Nov 20, 2024
NO @ CLE
100 - 128
Nov 6, 2024
CLE @ NO
131 - 122
Mar 13, 2024
CLE @ NO
116 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+31.9% more
Cleveland: 28.6
vs
New Orleans: 21.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+10.7%
Cleveland: 52.1%
vs
New Orleans: 41.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.1%
Cleveland: 40.0%
vs
New Orleans: 34.0%
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.5%
Cleveland: 87.0%
vs
New Orleans: 82.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NO Score
102.7
100
CLE Score
118.2
128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.0 / 34.0
42.9 / 25.8
Assists
28.6 / 21.7
29.0 / 23.0
Blocks
3.8 / 4.1
9.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
52.1 / 41.4
52.7 / 42.4
Free Throw %
87.0 / 82.5
85.7 / 63.6
Rebounding
42.9 / 45.2
52.0 / 40.0
Steals
6.5 / 7.4
10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 18.0
14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
NO
CLE
NO
ML
60%
69-46
62%
98-61
56%
55-44
58%
48-35
ATS
67%
75-37-3
68%
107-51-1
56%
55-44
58%
48-35
TTL
59%
68-47
75%
119-40
100%
99-0
100%
83-0
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