Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Pelicans GS @ NO

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

11-3  |  Road

112
FINAL
Fri, Nov 22 • 7:30 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

4-12  |  Home

108
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
PELICANS
100%
WARRIORS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.7
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.7 points (Golden State)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

78.0%

Pelicans Cover

22.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -7.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

GS By 1-7 points

25.6%

GS By 8-14 points

26.0%

NO By 1-7 points

14.1%

NO By 8-14 points

5.1%

AI Model Projected Score
113.56
GOLDEN STATE
105.83
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
GOLDEN STATE
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.7
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 219.4
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 24, 2026 GS @ NO 109 - 113
Nov 29, 2025 NO @ GS 96 - 104
Nov 16, 2025 GS @ NO 124 - 106
Mar 28, 2025 GS @ NO 111 - 95
Nov 22, 2024 GS @ NO 112 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +32.4% more
Golden State: 5.6 vs New Orleans: 3.8
Assists (L5) +30.4% more
Golden State: 31.8 vs New Orleans: 22.1
Steals (L5) +23.7% more
Golden State: 10.4 vs New Orleans: 7.9
Rebounding (L5) +13.8% more
Golden State: 50.4 vs New Orleans: 43.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 113.6 112
NO Score 105.8 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.3 / 37.3 30.8 / 32.4
Assists 22.1 / 31.8 28.0 / 27.0
Blocks 3.8 / 5.6 9.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 41.8 / 46.1 44.6 / 44.8
Free Throw % 76.2 / 63.7 63.6 / 75.9
Rebounding 43.4 / 50.4 43.0 / 52.0
Steals 7.9 / 10.4 10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 15.7 / 16.1 10.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
GS
NO
GS
ML
62% 98-61
55% 95-79
58% 48-35
58% 49-35
ATS
68% 107-51-1
58% 101-73
58% 48-35
58% 49-35
TTL
75% 119-40
77% 134-40
100% 83-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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