WASHINGTON
WIZARDSWSH
2-12 | Road
103
INDIANA
PACERSIND
6-10 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
100%
PACERS
0%
WIZARDS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
WSH By 1-7 points
22.6%
WSH By 8-14 points
11.6%
IND By 1-7 points
27.0%
IND By 8-14 points
19.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
109.49
WASHINGTON
Indiana
111.83
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Washington
WASHINGTON
Indiana
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.3
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 221.3
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 20, 2026
IND @ WSH
118 - 131
Feb 19, 2026
IND @ WSH
105 - 112
Dec 14, 2025
WSH @ IND
108 - 89
Nov 28, 2025
WSH @ IND
86 - 119
Apr 8, 2025
WSH @ IND
98 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+49.9% more
Indiana: 6.2
vs
Washington: 4.1
Steals (L5)
+47.6% more
Indiana: 9.9
vs
Washington: 6.7
Assists (L5)
+20.0% more
Indiana: 26.6
vs
Washington: 22.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.1%
Indiana: 79.2%
vs
Washington: 69.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
109.5
103
IND Score
111.8
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.5 / 32.6
44.4 / 31.4
Assists
26.6 / 22.2
31.0 / 24.0
Blocks
6.2 / 4.1
3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
48.6 / 45.0
47.7 / 45.6
Free Throw %
79.2 / 69.0
77.8 / 80.0
Rebounding
40.2 / 43.8
45.0 / 41.0
Steals
9.9 / 6.7
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
16.3 / 16.4
12.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0
(20.7%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
IND
Advantage
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0
(40.2%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
WSH
IND
WSH
ML
48%
47-50
70%
112-49
54%
45-38
47%
39-44
ATS
59%
57-40
69%
111-49-1
54%
45-38
47%
39-44
TTL
54%
52-45
74%
119-41-1
100%
83-0
100%
83-0
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