Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Pacers NO @ IND

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

4-13  |  Road

110
FINAL
Mon, Nov 25 • 7:00 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

7-10  |  Home

114
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
0%
📊
PACERS
100%
PELICANS --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
210.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (New Orleans)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

54.4%

Pacers Cover

45.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NO -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

NO By 1-7 points

26.3%

NO By 8-14 points

17.1%

IND By 1-7 points

24.1%

IND By 8-14 points

13.5%

AI Model Projected Score
105.8
NEW ORLEANS
104.69
INDIANA
Simulated Score
NEW ORLEANS
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pelicans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pelicans (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.1
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 210.5
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 16, 2026 NO @ IND 119 - 127
Dec 20, 2025 IND @ NO 109 - 128
Dec 15, 2024 NO @ IND 104 - 119
Nov 25, 2024 NO @ IND 110 - 114
Nov 1, 2024 IND @ NO 118 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +16.6% more
Indiana: 28.1 vs New Orleans: 24.1
Free Throw % (L5) +6.7%
Indiana: 78.7% vs New Orleans: 72.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.0%
Indiana: 37.1% vs New Orleans: 31.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.6%
Indiana: 48.3% vs New Orleans: 42.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 105.8 110
IND Score 104.7 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.1 / 31.1 36.2 / 27.3
Assists 28.1 / 24.1 30.0 / 35.0
Blocks 5.1 / 5.5 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.3 / 42.7 47.3 / 51.7
Free Throw % 78.7 / 72.0 68.8 / 57.9
Rebounding 41.8 / 43.3 41.0 / 44.0
Steals 9.3 / 8.6 10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.9 / 13.8 15.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
IND
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
NO
IND
NO
ML
48% 47-50
62% 98-61
54% 45-38
58% 48-35
ATS
59% 57-40
68% 107-51-1
54% 45-38
58% 48-35
TTL
54% 52-45
75% 119-40
100% 83-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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