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TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

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119
FINAL
Wed, Nov 27 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

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93
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
📊
PELICANS
0%
RAPTORS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
206.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.6
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.6 points (New Orleans)
RaptorsTOR (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

8.7%

Pelicans Cover

91.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NO -13.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

TOR By 1-7 points

6.2%

TOR By 8-14 points

1.5%

NO By 1-7 points

17.6%

NO By 8-14 points

26.5%

AI Model Projected Score
96.2
TORONTO
109.78
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
TORONTO
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pelicans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pelicans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.6
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 206.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 27, 2026 NO @ TOR 106 - 119
Mar 11, 2026 TOR @ NO 111 - 122
Jan 27, 2025 NO @ TOR 104 - 113
Nov 27, 2024 TOR @ NO 119 - 93
Mar 5, 2024 NO @ TOR 139 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +14.0% more
New Orleans: 8.7 vs Toronto: 7.7
Assists (L5) +11.1% more
New Orleans: 27.7 vs Toronto: 25.0
Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
New Orleans: 45.7% vs Toronto: 44.1%
Rebounding (L5) +11.4% more
Toronto: 49.2 vs New Orleans: 43.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 96.2 119
NO Score 109.8 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.8 / 32.3 31.4 / 40.4
Assists 27.7 / 25.0 24.0 / 38.0
Blocks 4.7 / 4.6 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.7 / 44.1 38.7 / 49.5
Free Throw % 67.3 / 73.6 62.5 / 33.3
Rebounding 43.5 / 49.2 47.0 / 52.0
Steals 8.7 / 7.7 12.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 14.2 / 14.4 17.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
TOR
NO
TOR
ML
62% 98-61
55% 57-47
58% 48-35
55% 48-39
ATS
68% 107-51-1
61% 62-40-2
58% 48-35
55% 48-39
TTL
75% 119-40
60% 62-42
100% 83-0
100% 87-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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