DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
9-7 | Road
122
UTAH
JAZZUTAH
4-13 | Home
103
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
JAZZ
100%
NUGGETS
--
JAZZ
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DEN By 1-7 points
21.6%
DEN By 8-14 points
27.4%
UTAH By 1-7 points
9.3%
UTAH By 8-14 points
2.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
120.81
DENVER
Utah
109.8
UTAH
Simulated Score
Denver
DENVER
Utah
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 230.6
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
DEN @ UTAH
130 - 117
Mar 27, 2026
UTAH @ DEN
129 - 135
Mar 2, 2026
DEN @ UTAH
128 - 125
Dec 22, 2025
UTAH @ DEN
112 - 135
Mar 28, 2025
UTAH @ DEN
93 - 129
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+13.6% more
Denver: 29.3
vs
Utah: 25.3
Steals (L5)
+12.6% more
Denver: 7.0
vs
Utah: 6.1
Turnovers (L5)
+26.6% more
Utah: 18.2
vs
Denver: 14.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.0%
Utah: 80.1%
vs
Denver: 75.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
120.8
122
UTAH Score
109.8
103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.6 / 40.5
37.2 / 33.3
Assists
25.3 / 29.3
25.0 / 30.0
Blocks
3.8 / 3.9
5.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
49.0 / 49.4
42.2 / 54.8
Free Throw %
80.1 / 75.1
61.1 / 82.6
Rebounding
44.4 / 41.4
47.0 / 39.0
Steals
6.1 / 7.0
7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
18.2 / 14.4
19.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
UTAH
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
UTAH
41-41-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2%
Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
DEN
UTAH
DEN
ML
60%
96-63
54%
57-48
48%
40-43
55%
47-39
ATS
68%
108-51
63%
65-38-2
48%
40-43
55%
47-39
TTL
75%
119-39-1
54%
56-48-1
100%
83-0
100%
86-0
Contextual Game News
Tyler Kolek's Girlfriend Spills: Knicks Parade Police Mix-Up Hap…
Donovan Mitchell Sounds Off on Ring Culture Disrespect Toward Ja…
Caleb Wilson's Bulls Debut: Rookie Brings Bold Talk and Mixed Re…
Mike Breen Issues Apology After LeBron James Shoots Down Embiid …
Anonymous NBA Scout Shuts Down JJ Redick's Lakers Title Hopes wi…