NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
4-15 | Road
109
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
12-7 | Home
120
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
GRIZZLIES
0%
PELICANS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.1
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.1 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -6.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
NO By 1-7 points
16.8%
NO By 8-14 points
6.8%
MEM By 1-7 points
26.8%
MEM By 8-14 points
24.4%
AI Model Projected Score
New Orleans
107.9
NEW ORLEANS
Memphis
113.97
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
New Orleans
NEW ORLEANS
Memphis
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.1
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 221.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 30, 2026
MEM @ NO
106 - 114
Jan 23, 2026
NO @ MEM
133 - 127
Nov 26, 2025
MEM @ NO
133 - 128
Oct 22, 2025
NO @ MEM
122 - 128
Mar 9, 2025
MEM @ NO
107 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+64.0% more
Memphis: 7.3
vs
New Orleans: 4.5
Assists (L5)
+20.5% more
Memphis: 31.9
vs
New Orleans: 26.5
Turnovers (L5)
+15.3% more
Memphis: 17.4
vs
New Orleans: 15.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.0%
Memphis: 75.7%
vs
New Orleans: 65.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NO Score
107.9
109
MEM Score
114.0
120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.6 / 30.4
29.3 / 31.0
Assists
31.9 / 26.5
36.0 / 16.0
Blocks
7.3 / 4.5
5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
51.2 / 43.4
49.0 / 41.8
Free Throw %
75.7 / 65.7
82.4 / 80.0
Rebounding
48.6 / 44.7
51.0 / 46.0
Steals
9.0 / 9.8
9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
17.4 / 15.1
16.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
Advantage
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
NO
MEM
NO
ML
57%
59-44
62%
98-61
50%
41-41
58%
48-35
ATS
63%
65-38
68%
107-51-1
50%
41-41
58%
48-35
TTL
70%
71-31-1
75%
119-40
100%
82-0
100%
83-0
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