DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
11-8 | Road
106
UTAH
JAZZUTAH
4-14 | Home
94
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
JAZZ
100%
MAVERICKS
--
JAZZ
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.2
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.2 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL -4.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
DAL By 1-7 points
27.4%
DAL By 8-14 points
21.9%
UTAH By 1-7 points
19.9%
UTAH By 8-14 points
9.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
118.34
DALLAS
Utah
114.18
UTAH
Simulated Score
Dallas
DALLAS
Utah
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 232.5
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
UTAH @ DAL
120 - 138
Jan 15, 2026
UTAH @ DAL
122 - 144
Jan 8, 2026
DAL @ UTAH
114 - 116
Dec 15, 2025
DAL @ UTAH
133 - 140
Oct 13, 2025
DAL @ UTAH
114 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+31.6% more
Dallas: 6.1
vs
Utah: 4.2
Steals (L5)
+8.8% more
Dallas: 7.0
vs
Utah: 6.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.0%
Dallas: 79.8%
vs
Utah: 73.8%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.3%
Dallas: 51.0%
vs
Utah: 46.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
118.3
106
UTAH Score
114.2
94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.8 / 42.1
23.1 / 38.5
Assists
25.2 / 25.8
20.0 / 30.0
Blocks
4.2 / 6.1
7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
46.8 / 51.0
35.8 / 45.6
Free Throw %
73.8 / 79.8
81.0 / 60.0
Rebounding
45.3 / 48.0
53.0 / 48.0
Steals
6.4 / 7.0
10.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
18.5 / 14.5
15.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
Advantage
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
UTAH
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
UTAH
Advantage
41-41-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2%
Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
DAL
UTAH
DAL
ML
60%
96-63
62%
63-39
48%
40-43
54%
44-37
ATS
68%
108-51
67%
68-34
48%
40-43
54%
44-37
TTL
75%
119-39-1
59%
60-41-1
100%
83-0
100%
81-0
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