Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Hawks NO @ ATL

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

4-17  |  Road

112
FINAL
Mon, Dec 2 • 7:30 PM ET
State Farm Arena
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

HAWKSATL

10-11  |  Home

124
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
📊
HAWKS
0%
PELICANS --
HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
211.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.2
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.2 points (Atlanta)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 HawksATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

37.3%

Hawks Cover

62.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL -3.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

NO By 1-7 points

21.3%

NO By 8-14 points

10.4%

ATL By 1-7 points

27.3%

ATL By 8-14 points

20.5%

AI Model Projected Score
103.98
NEW ORLEANS
107.21
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
NEW ORLEANS
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 211.2
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 7, 2026 NO @ ATL 100 - 117
Nov 22, 2025 ATL @ NO 115 - 98
Dec 2, 2024 NO @ ATL 112 - 124
Nov 3, 2024 ATL @ NO 126 - 111
Mar 10, 2024 NO @ ATL 116 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +42.4% more
Atlanta: 31.3 vs New Orleans: 22.0
Turnovers (L5) +26.5% more
Atlanta: 18.6 vs New Orleans: 14.7
Free Throw % (L5) +12.7%
Atlanta: 81.3% vs New Orleans: 68.6%
Rebounding (L5) +11.1% more
Atlanta: 49.0 vs New Orleans: 44.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 104.0 112
ATL Score 107.2 124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.5 / 25.3 26.3 / 31.0
Assists 31.3 / 22.0 30.0 / 21.0
Blocks 6.0 / 6.5 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 48.1 / 41.0 51.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 81.3 / 68.6 80.0 / 64.7
Rebounding 49.0 / 44.1 51.0 / 41.0
Steals 8.5 / 11.0 12.0 / 15.0
Turnovers 18.6 / 14.7 18.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
ATL Advantage
48-40-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
ATL
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
NO
ATL
NO
ML
50% 52-52
62% 98-61
55% 48-40
58% 48-35
ATS
53% 55-48-1
68% 107-51-1
55% 48-40
58% 48-35
TTL
53% 55-48-1
75% 119-40
100% 88-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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