Home / NBA Projections NBA / Jazz @ Thunder UTAH @ OKC

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

4-16  |  Road

106
FINAL
Tue, Dec 3 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

15-5  |  Home

133
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
JAZZ --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.2
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.2 points (Oklahoma City)
JazzUTAH (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jazz Cover

9.4%

Thunder Cover

90.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -13.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

UTAH By 1-7 points

6.7%

UTAH By 8-14 points

1.7%

OKC By 1-7 points

18.3%

OKC By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
105.8
UTAH
118.95
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
UTAH
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 224.8
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 UTAH @ OKC 111 - 146
Jan 7, 2026 UTAH @ OKC 125 - 129
Dec 7, 2025 OKC @ UTAH 131 - 101
Nov 21, 2025 OKC @ UTAH 144 - 112
Apr 11, 2025 OKC @ UTAH 145 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +40.5% more
Oklahoma City: 9.0 vs Utah: 6.4
Free Throw % (L5) +4.3%
Oklahoma City: 75.9% vs Utah: 71.6%
Turnovers (L5) +36.5% more
Utah: 16.5 vs Oklahoma City: 10.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score 105.8 106
OKC Score 119.0 133
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 34.0 36.2 / 37.1
Assists 25.9 / 24.6 32.0 / 21.0
Blocks 4.9 / 4.8 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 45.1 / 45.6 52.0 / 54.3
Free Throw % 75.9 / 71.6 90.9 / 77.3
Rebounding 45.6 / 46.6 34.0 / 36.0
Steals 9.0 / 6.4 18.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 16.5 8.0 / 29.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH Advantage
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
UTAH
OKC
UTAH
ML
70% 80-34
60% 96-63
48% 46-49
48% 40-43
ATS
73% 83-30-1
68% 108-51
48% 46-49
48% 40-43
TTL
67% 76-38
75% 119-39-1
100% 95-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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