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DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

14-8  |  Road

137
FINAL
Thu, Dec 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

2-17  |  Home

101
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
📊
WIZARDS
100%
MAVERICKS --
WIZARDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.7
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.7 points (Dallas)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 WizardsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

85.7%

Wizards Cover

14.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL -10.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

DAL By 1-7 points

22.1%

DAL By 8-14 points

27.4%

WSH By 1-7 points

9.7%

WSH By 8-14 points

2.9%

AI Model Projected Score
118.1
DALLAS
107.41
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
DALLAS
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.7
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 225.5
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 DAL @ WSH 111 - 105
Oct 24, 2025 WSH @ DAL 117 - 107
Jan 27, 2025 WSH @ DAL 108 - 130
Dec 5, 2024 DAL @ WSH 137 - 101
Feb 12, 2024 WSH @ DAL 104 - 112
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +32.8% more
Dallas: 9.4 vs Washington: 6.3
Assists (L5) +21.2% more
Dallas: 27.4 vs Washington: 21.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +18.8%
Dallas: 42.8% vs Washington: 24.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +7.6%
Dallas: 50.2% vs Washington: 42.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 118.1 137
WSH Score 107.4 101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 24.0 / 42.8 32.5 / 52.6
Assists 21.6 / 27.4 25.0 / 27.0
Blocks 5.1 / 5.4 3.0 / 12.0
Field Goal % 42.6 / 50.2 39.4 / 53.9
Free Throw % 79.5 / 72.9 66.7 / 77.8
Rebounding 45.1 / 45.0 39.0 / 58.0
Steals 6.3 / 9.4 10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 17.3 / 17.7 12.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
DAL
WSH
DAL
ML
70% 112-49
62% 63-39
47% 39-44
54% 44-37
ATS
69% 111-49-1
67% 68-34
47% 39-44
54% 44-37
TTL
74% 119-41-1
59% 60-41-1
100% 83-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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