Home / NBA Projections NBA / Suns @ Pelicans PHX @ NO

PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

12-8  |  Road

124
FINAL
Thu, Dec 5 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

4-18  |  Home

126
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
0%
📊
PELICANS
100%
SUNS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
208.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Phoenix)
SunsPHX (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Suns Cover

59.0%

Pelicans Cover

41.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PHX -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)

PHX By 1-7 points

27.0%

PHX By 8-14 points

19.0%

NO By 1-7 points

22.6%

NO By 8-14 points

11.7%

AI Model Projected Score
105.51
PHOENIX
103.23
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
PHOENIX
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Suns Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Suns (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.3
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 208.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 NO @ PHX 116 - 118
Dec 27, 2025 PHX @ NO 123 - 114
Dec 26, 2025 PHX @ NO 115 - 108
Nov 10, 2025 NO @ PHX 98 - 121
Feb 28, 2025 NO @ PHX 108 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +21.4% more
Phoenix: 27.5 vs New Orleans: 21.7
Free Throw % (L5) +13.6%
Phoenix: 80.8% vs New Orleans: 67.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.4%
Phoenix: 39.6% vs New Orleans: 27.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +6.9%
Phoenix: 48.8% vs New Orleans: 42.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHX Score 105.5 124
NO Score 103.2 126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.2 / 39.6 38.9 / 37.8
Assists 21.7 / 27.5 23.0 / 32.0
Blocks 6.0 / 5.3 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.0 / 48.8 49.5 / 50.6
Free Throw % 67.3 / 80.8 72.0 / 80.8
Rebounding 43.1 / 42.8 44.0 / 46.0
Steals 12.4 / 7.7 13.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 15.2 / 14.1 13.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
NO
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
PHX
NO
PHX
ML
62% 98-61
57% 60-45
58% 48-35
51% 45-43
ATS
68% 107-51-1
58% 59-43-3
58% 48-35
51% 45-43
TTL
75% 119-40
59% 61-42-2
100% 83-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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