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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

17-5  |  Road

119
FINAL
Sat, Dec 7 • 7:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

5-18  |  Home

109
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
PELICANS
100%
THUNDER --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.6
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.6 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

87.7%

Pelicans Cover

12.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -11.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

20.7%

OKC By 8-14 points

27.3%

NO By 1-7 points

8.5%

NO By 8-14 points

2.4%

AI Model Projected Score
116
OKLAHOMA CITY
104.4
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
OKLAHOMA CITY
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.6
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 220.4
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 27, 2026 NO @ OKC 95 - 104
Nov 17, 2025 OKC @ NO 126 - 109
Nov 2, 2025 NO @ OKC 106 - 137
Apr 13, 2025 OKC @ NO 115 - 100
Feb 10, 2025 NO @ OKC 101 - 137
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +21.0% more
Oklahoma City: 28.0 vs New Orleans: 22.1
Blocks (L5) +18.1% more
Oklahoma City: 6.5 vs New Orleans: 5.4
Free Throw % (L5) +12.5%
Oklahoma City: 81.4% vs New Orleans: 68.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.8%
Oklahoma City: 34.9% vs New Orleans: 31.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 116.0 119
NO Score 104.4 109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.1 / 34.9 29.7 / 37.5
Assists 22.1 / 28.0 25.0 / 27.0
Blocks 5.4 / 6.5 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.5 / 47.6 48.1 / 52.9
Free Throw % 68.8 / 81.4 81.5 / 81.0
Rebounding 43.4 / 46.2 35.0 / 45.0
Steals 12.6 / 13.0 15.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 14.4 / 8.4 18.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
OKC
NO
OKC
ML
62% 98-61
70% 80-34
58% 48-35
48% 46-49
ATS
68% 107-51-1
73% 83-30-1
58% 48-35
48% 46-49
TTL
75% 119-40
67% 76-38
100% 83-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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