DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
11-9 | Road
113
WASHINGTON
WIZARDSWSH
2-18 | Home
122
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
WIZARDS
100%
NUGGETS
--
WIZARDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
218.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.5
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.5 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -10.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DEN By 1-7 points
22.4%
DEN By 8-14 points
27.3%
WSH By 1-7 points
10.0%
WSH By 8-14 points
3.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
114.54
DENVER
Washington
104.07
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Denver
DENVER
Washington
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.5
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 218.6
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 22, 2026
DEN @ WSH
107 - 97
Jan 17, 2026
WSH @ DEN
115 - 121
Mar 15, 2025
WSH @ DEN
126 - 123
Dec 7, 2024
DEN @ WSH
113 - 122
Feb 22, 2024
WSH @ DEN
110 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+23.4% more
Denver: 29.7
vs
Washington: 22.7
Steals (L5)
+19.7% more
Denver: 9.4
vs
Washington: 7.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+9.4%
Denver: 51.0%
vs
Washington: 41.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.1%
Denver: 36.0%
vs
Washington: 26.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
114.5
113
WSH Score
104.1
122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.8 / 36.0
39.0 / 20.0
Assists
22.7 / 29.7
31.0 / 34.0
Blocks
4.4 / 4.8
12.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
41.5 / 51.0
48.4 / 48.4
Free Throw %
75.2 / 72.8
72.7 / 59.3
Rebounding
43.1 / 42.6
46.0 / 48.0
Steals
7.6 / 9.4
9.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
15.5 / 14.7
17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
WSH
17-65-0
(20.7%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
WSH
33-49-0
(40.2%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
DEN
WSH
DEN
ML
70%
112-49
54%
57-48
47%
39-44
55%
47-39
ATS
69%
111-49-1
63%
65-38-2
47%
39-44
55%
47-39
TTL
74%
119-41-1
54%
56-48-1
100%
83-0
100%
86-0
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