NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
5-19 | Road
116
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
11-12 | Home
121
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
0%
SPURS
100%
PELICANS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
211.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (New Orleans)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NO -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)
NO By 1-7 points
26.5%
NO By 8-14 points
17.6%
SA By 1-7 points
23.8%
SA By 8-14 points
13.1%
AI Model Projected Score
New Orleans
106.19
NEW ORLEANS
San Antonio
104.78
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
New Orleans
NEW ORLEANS
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pelicans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pelicans (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.4
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 211.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 25, 2026
NO @ SA
104 - 95
Dec 8, 2025
SA @ NO
135 - 132
Nov 8, 2025
NO @ SA
119 - 126
Oct 24, 2025
SA @ NO
120 - 116
Mar 15, 2025
NO @ SA
115 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+35.7% more
New Orleans: 13.4
vs
San Antonio: 8.6
Turnovers (L5)
+14.9% more
New Orleans: 15.6
vs
San Antonio: 13.3
Blocks (L5)
+11.8% more
New Orleans: 5.6
vs
San Antonio: 4.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
New Orleans: 45.7%
vs
San Antonio: 43.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NO Score
106.2
116
SA Score
104.8
121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.1 / 30.6
30.8 / 34.2
Assists
27.8 / 23.1
27.0 / 26.0
Blocks
4.9 / 5.6
11.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
43.7 / 45.7
45.2 / 43.4
Free Throw %
75.0 / 73.1
80.6 / 81.0
Rebounding
43.0 / 40.6
55.0 / 43.0
Steals
8.6 / 13.4
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
13.3 / 15.6
13.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
NO
SA
NO
ML
60%
111-73
62%
98-61
58%
61-44
58%
48-35
ATS
58%
107-76-1
68%
107-51-1
58%
61-44
58%
48-35
TTL
74%
134-47-3
75%
119-40
100%
105-0
100%
83-0
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