MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
16-8 | Road
140
WASHINGTON
WIZARDSWSH
3-18 | Home
112
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
WIZARDS
100%
GRIZZLIES
--
WIZARDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.7
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.7 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM -8.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
MEM By 1-7 points
24.6%
MEM By 8-14 points
26.7%
WSH By 1-7 points
12.7%
WSH By 8-14 points
4.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
117.34
MEMPHIS
Washington
108.67
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Memphis
MEMPHIS
Washington
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.7
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 28, 2025
MEM @ WSH
112 - 116
Dec 20, 2025
WSH @ MEM
130 - 122
Dec 8, 2024
MEM @ WSH
140 - 112
Nov 8, 2024
WSH @ MEM
104 - 128
Mar 12, 2024
WSH @ MEM
97 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+28.4% more
Memphis: 11.2
vs
Washington: 8.0
Assists (L5)
+10.4% more
Memphis: 28.5
vs
Washington: 25.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.2%
Memphis: 38.0%
vs
Washington: 30.9%
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.0%
Memphis: 81.4%
vs
Washington: 74.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
117.3
140
WSH Score
108.7
112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.9 / 38.0
18.8 / 39.5
Assists
25.5 / 28.5
20.0 / 34.0
Blocks
6.9 / 5.8
5.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
43.8 / 49.3
43.0 / 52.1
Free Throw %
74.4 / 81.4
90.9 / 79.3
Rebounding
44.0 / 47.7
52.0 / 46.0
Steals
8.0 / 11.2
10.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
16.0 / 16.4
21.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
Advantage
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
WSH
17-65-0
(20.7%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
Advantage
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
WSH
33-49-0
(40.2%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MEM
WSH
MEM
ML
70%
112-49
57%
59-44
47%
39-44
50%
41-41
ATS
69%
111-49-1
63%
65-38
47%
39-44
50%
41-41
TTL
74%
119-41-1
70%
71-31-1
100%
83-0
100%
82-0
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