Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Pacers NO @ IND

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

5-21  |  Road

104
FINAL
Sun, Dec 15 • 5:00 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

11-15  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
0%
📊
PACERS
100%
PELICANS --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
216.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (New Orleans)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

50.6%

Pacers Cover

49.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NO -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

NO By 1-7 points

25.5%

NO By 8-14 points

15.6%

IND By 1-7 points

25.2%

IND By 8-14 points

15.1%

AI Model Projected Score
108.15
NEW ORLEANS
107.99
INDIANA
Simulated Score
NEW ORLEANS
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pelicans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pelicans (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 216.1
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 16, 2026 NO @ IND 119 - 127
Dec 20, 2025 IND @ NO 109 - 128
Dec 15, 2024 NO @ IND 104 - 119
Nov 25, 2024 NO @ IND 110 - 114
Nov 1, 2024 IND @ NO 118 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +13.3% more
New Orleans: 10.0 vs Indiana: 8.6
Rebounding (L5) +8.7% more
New Orleans: 41.9 vs Indiana: 38.3
Assists (L5) +22.3% more
Indiana: 28.6 vs New Orleans: 23.4
Field Goal % (L5) +4.9%
Indiana: 50.5% vs New Orleans: 45.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 108.2 104
IND Score 108.0 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.3 / 33.8 42.1 / 30.3
Assists 28.6 / 23.4 33.0 / 18.0
Blocks 5.5 / 5.6 9.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 50.5 / 45.6 50.6 / 39.2
Free Throw % 81.3 / 78.8 87.5 / 78.3
Rebounding 38.3 / 41.9 43.0 / 49.0
Steals 8.6 / 10.0 10.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 13.9 / 14.4 17.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
IND
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
NO
IND
NO
ML
48% 47-50
62% 98-61
54% 45-38
58% 48-35
ATS
59% 57-40
68% 107-51-1
54% 45-38
58% 48-35
TTL
54% 52-45
75% 119-40
100% 83-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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