Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Rockets NO @ HOU

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

5-22  |  Road

113
FINAL
Thu, Dec 19 • 8:00 PM ET
Toyota Center
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

17-9  |  Home

133
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
📊
ROCKETS
0%
PELICANS --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
213.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.8
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.8 points (Houston)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 RocketsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

31.5%

Rockets Cover

68.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -4.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

NO By 1-7 points

18.8%

NO By 8-14 points

8.2%

HOU By 1-7 points

27.3%

HOU By 8-14 points

22.8%

AI Model Projected Score
104.54
NEW ORLEANS
109.36
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
NEW ORLEANS
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.8
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 213.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 29, 2026 HOU @ NO 134 - 102
Mar 13, 2026 NO @ HOU 105 - 107
Jan 18, 2026 NO @ HOU 110 - 119
Dec 18, 2025 HOU @ NO 128 - 133
Oct 14, 2025 HOU @ NO 130 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +27.1% more
New Orleans: 10.3 vs Houston: 7.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.9%
New Orleans: 32.6% vs Houston: 27.8%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.3%
New Orleans: 78.6% vs Houston: 75.4%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
New Orleans: 43.5% vs Houston: 41.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 104.5 113
HOU Score 109.4 133
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.8 / 32.6 43.6 / 46.4
Assists 20.1 / 21.6 34.0 / 25.0
Blocks 4.7 / 5.1 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.9 / 43.5 57.5 / 44.6
Free Throw % 75.4 / 78.6 84.2 / 72.0
Rebounding 46.2 / 44.3 42.0 / 37.0
Steals 7.5 / 10.3 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 15.0 / 15.6 12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
NO
HOU
NO
ML
61% 69-44
62% 98-61
59% 51-35
58% 48-35
ATS
62% 70-43
68% 107-51-1
59% 51-35
58% 48-35
TTL
51% 58-55
75% 119-40
100% 86-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
dallasnews 1 hour, 17 minutes ago
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
tmz 1 hour, 25 minutes ago
ATLAS League Launches to Crown World Champion in High School Bas…
yahoo 1 hour, 33 minutes ago
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
yahoo 7 hours, 9 minutes ago
Bill Self's Revamped Kansas Roster Built for Another National Ti…
si 7 hours, 13 minutes ago