Home / NBA Projections NBA / Knicks @ Pelicans NY @ NO

NEW YORK

KNICKSNY

17-10  |  Road

104
FINAL
Sat, Dec 21 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

5-23  |  Home

93
AI Model Win Probability
KNICKS
0%
📊
PELICANS
100%
KNICKS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.3
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.3 points (New York)
KnicksNY (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Knicks Cover

66.6%

Pelicans Cover

33.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NY -4.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NY)

NY By 1-7 points

27.4%

NY By 8-14 points

22.1%

NO By 1-7 points

19.7%

NO By 8-14 points

8.9%

AI Model Projected Score
112.9
NEW YORK
108.6
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
NEW YORK
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Knicks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Knicks (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.3
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 221.5
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 24, 2026 NO @ NY 116 - 121
Dec 29, 2025 NY @ NO 130 - 125
Dec 21, 2024 NY @ NO 104 - 93
Dec 1, 2024 NO @ NY 85 - 118
Feb 27, 2024 NO @ NY 115 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +24.6% more
New York: 30.2 vs New Orleans: 22.7
Rebounding (L5) +12.9% more
New York: 48.0 vs New Orleans: 41.9
Blocks (L5) +12.6% more
New York: 4.6 vs New Orleans: 4.0
Field Goal % (L5) +5.2%
New York: 49.1% vs New Orleans: 43.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NY Score 112.9 104
NO Score 108.6 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.2 / 40.3 35.3 / 40.5
Assists 22.7 / 30.2 23.0 / 24.0
Blocks 4.0 / 4.6 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.9 / 49.1 41.0 / 43.7
Free Throw % 76.4 / 75.3 68.4 / 86.7
Rebounding 41.9 / 48.0 45.0 / 42.0
Steals 8.9 / 8.7 8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 14.4 / 15.2 19.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NY Advantage
70-32-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NY Advantage
58-44-0 (56.9%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
NO
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NY
47-55-0
O: 46.1% / U: 53.9% Total +/-: -1.4
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
NY
NO
NY
ML
62% 98-61
61% 114-72
58% 48-35
56% 57-45
ATS
68% 107-51-1
67% 124-62
58% 48-35
56% 57-45
TTL
75% 119-40
72% 133-53
100% 83-0
100% 102-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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