Home / NBA Projections NBA / Trail Blazers @ Spurs POR @ SA

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

9-18  |  Road

94
FINAL
Sat, Dec 21 • 8:30 PM ET
Frost Bank Center
View Odds Details →

SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

14-13  |  Home

114
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
📊
SPURS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
SPURS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
218.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.3
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.3 points (San Antonio)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 SpursSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

29.7%

Spurs Cover

70.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -5.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)

POR By 1-7 points

18.0%

POR By 8-14 points

7.6%

SA By 1-7 points

27.1%

SA By 8-14 points

23.4%

AI Model Projected Score
106.8
PORTLAND
112.12
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
PORTLAND
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Spurs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Spurs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.3
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 218.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 28, 2026 POR @ SA 95 - 114
Apr 26, 2026 SA @ POR 114 - 93
Apr 24, 2026 SA @ POR 120 - 108
Apr 21, 2026 POR @ SA 106 - 103
Apr 19, 2026 POR @ SA 98 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +42.7% more
San Antonio: 9.5 vs Portland: 6.6
Blocks (L5) +41.0% more
San Antonio: 7.4 vs Portland: 5.2
Turnovers (L5) +19.9% more
San Antonio: 16.0 vs Portland: 13.4
Assists (L5) +16.9% more
San Antonio: 31.1 vs Portland: 26.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 106.8 94
SA Score 112.1 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.8 / 33.8 27.8 / 27.9
Assists 31.1 / 26.6 33.0 / 21.0
Blocks 7.4 / 5.2 13.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.0 / 46.3 47.3 / 39.6
Free Throw % 74.6 / 82.3 88.9 / 66.7
Rebounding 45.1 / 43.0 49.0 / 44.0
Steals 9.5 / 6.6 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 16.0 / 13.4 12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
SA Advantage
75-31-0 (70.8%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
SA Advantage
60-44-2 (57.7%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
POR
SA
POR
ML
60% 111-73
53% 56-49
58% 61-44
55% 49-40
ATS
58% 107-76-1
62% 65-39-1
58% 61-44
55% 49-40
TTL
74% 134-47-3
56% 58-46-1
100% 105-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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