DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
14-11 | Road
132
NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
5-24 | Home
129
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
PELICANS
100%
NUGGETS
--
PELICANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.5
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -6.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DEN By 1-7 points
26.6%
DEN By 8-14 points
24.8%
NO By 1-7 points
16.2%
NO By 8-14 points
6.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
118.85
DENVER
New Orleans
112.39
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
Denver
DENVER
New Orleans
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.5
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 231.2
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 13, 2026
DEN @ NO
122 - 116
Nov 19, 2025
DEN @ NO
125 - 118
Oct 29, 2025
NO @ DEN
88 - 122
Feb 5, 2025
NO @ DEN
119 - 144
Feb 3, 2025
NO @ DEN
113 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+32.7% more
Denver: 33.9
vs
New Orleans: 22.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+10.4%
Denver: 53.3%
vs
New Orleans: 42.9%
Steals (L5)
+8.8% more
Denver: 9.4
vs
New Orleans: 8.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.6%
Denver: 38.2%
vs
New Orleans: 36.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
118.9
132
NO Score
112.4
129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.6 / 38.2
30.0 / 30.3
Assists
22.8 / 33.9
37.0 / 34.0
Blocks
4.4 / 3.7
9.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
42.9 / 53.3
46.3 / 50.5
Free Throw %
73.8 / 73.0
73.9 / 75.0
Rebounding
42.9 / 45.4
43.0 / 54.0
Steals
8.6 / 9.4
16.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
15.9 / 11.5
15.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
DEN
NO
DEN
ML
62%
98-61
54%
57-48
58%
48-35
55%
47-39
ATS
68%
107-51-1
63%
65-38-2
58%
48-35
55%
47-39
TTL
75%
119-40
54%
56-48-1
100%
83-0
100%
86-0
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