Home / NBA Projections NBA / Raptors @ Knicks TOR @ NY

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

7-22  |  Road

125
FINAL
Mon, Dec 23 • 7:30 PM ET
Madison Square Garden
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

KNICKSNY

18-10  |  Home

139
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
📊
KNICKS
0%
RAPTORS --
KNICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.4 points (New York)
RaptorsTOR (-3.5) 0 KnicksNY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

12.6%

Knicks Cover

87.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NY -11.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NY)

TOR By 1-7 points

8.7%

TOR By 8-14 points

2.4%

NY By 1-7 points

21.0%

NY By 8-14 points

27.3%

AI Model Projected Score
104.1
TORONTO
115.54
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
TORONTO
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Knicks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Knicks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.4
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 219.6
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 TOR @ NY 95 - 112
Mar 3, 2026 NY @ TOR 111 - 95
Jan 28, 2026 NY @ TOR 119 - 92
Dec 9, 2025 NY @ TOR 117 - 101
Nov 30, 2025 TOR @ NY 94 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +19.8% more
New York: 9.5 vs Toronto: 7.9
Rebounding (L5) +11.0% more
New York: 46.0 vs Toronto: 41.5
Free Throw % (L5) +4.3%
New York: 79.1% vs Toronto: 74.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.1%
New York: 40.3% vs Toronto: 36.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 104.1 125
NY Score 115.5 139
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.3 / 36.3 45.9 / 39.3
Assists 28.1 / 29.4 34.0 / 28.0
Blocks 4.1 / 4.1 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.3 / 44.7 59.3 / 54.5
Free Throw % 79.1 / 74.8 69.0 / 81.1
Rebounding 46.0 / 41.5 35.0 / 30.0
Steals 9.5 / 7.9 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 15.8 / 16.6 17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
NY Advantage
70-32-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
NY Advantage
58-44-0 (56.9%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
NY
47-55-0
O: 46.1% / U: 53.9% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NY
TOR
NY
TOR
ML
61% 114-72
55% 57-47
56% 57-45
55% 48-39
ATS
67% 124-62
61% 62-40-2
56% 57-45
55% 48-39
TTL
72% 133-53
60% 62-42
100% 102-0
100% 87-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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