Home / NBA Projections NBA / Wizards @ Thunder WSH @ OKC

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

4-22  |  Road

105
FINAL
Mon, Dec 23 • 8:00 PM ET
Paycom Center
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

22-5  |  Home

123
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
WIZARDS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
210.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.4
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.4 points (Oklahoma City)
WizardsWSH (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wizards Cover

10.8%

Thunder Cover

89.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -12.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

WSH By 1-7 points

7.6%

WSH By 8-14 points

2.0%

OKC By 1-7 points

19.6%

OKC By 8-14 points

27.1%

AI Model Projected Score
99.18
WASHINGTON
111.55
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
WASHINGTON
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.4
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 210.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 21, 2026 OKC @ WSH 132 - 111
Oct 30, 2025 WSH @ OKC 108 - 127
Jan 12, 2025 OKC @ WSH 136 - 95
Dec 23, 2024 WSH @ OKC 105 - 123
Feb 23, 2024 WSH @ OKC 106 - 147
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +54.2% more
Oklahoma City: 11.3 vs Washington: 7.3
Free Throw % (L5) +8.2%
Oklahoma City: 81.5% vs Washington: 73.3%
Turnovers (L5) +29.0% more
Washington: 18.0 vs Oklahoma City: 12.8
Blocks (L5) +15.0% more
Washington: 6.1 vs Oklahoma City: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 99.2 105
OKC Score 111.6 123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.2 / 36.9 26.3 / 37.2
Assists 22.5 / 24.3 25.0 / 25.0
Blocks 5.2 / 6.1 9.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 44.7 / 45.1 44.3 / 39.6
Free Throw % 81.5 / 73.3 86.4 / 85.0
Rebounding 43.2 / 48.4 59.0 / 51.0
Steals 11.3 / 7.3 15.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 18.0 12.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
WSH
OKC
WSH
ML
70% 80-34
70% 112-49
48% 46-49
47% 39-44
ATS
73% 83-30-1
69% 111-49-1
48% 46-49
47% 39-44
TTL
67% 76-38
74% 119-41-1
100% 95-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Declares Himself NBA's Best Player, Shru…
bleacherreport 5 hours, 48 minutes ago
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Takes Blame for Thunder's Game 7 Loss, B…
bleacherreport 5 hours, 56 minutes ago
Brooks Barnhizer Shines in Thunder Preseason Debut, Sparks Hope …
si 1 day, 17 hours ago
Thunder's Young Core Shines in Preseason Loss to Pelicans
yahoo 1 day, 17 hours ago
Anthony Davis's Max Contract Ambitions Could Shape Wizards' Futu…
bleacherreport 2 days, 5 hours ago