Home / NBA Projections NBA / Rockets @ Pelicans HOU @ NO

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

20-9  |  Road

128
FINAL
Thu, Dec 26 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

5-25  |  Home

111
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
📊
PELICANS
100%
ROCKETS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
215.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Houston)
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

62.0%

Pelicans Cover

38.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-7 points

27.2%

HOU By 8-14 points

20.2%

NO By 1-7 points

21.6%

NO By 8-14 points

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
109.14
HOUSTON
106.09
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
HOUSTON
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockets (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 215.2
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 29, 2026 HOU @ NO 134 - 102
Mar 13, 2026 NO @ HOU 105 - 107
Jan 18, 2026 NO @ HOU 110 - 119
Dec 18, 2025 HOU @ NO 128 - 133
Oct 14, 2025 HOU @ NO 130 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +16.9% more
Houston: 51.7 vs New Orleans: 42.9
Free Throw % (L5) +5.5%
Houston: 79.3% vs New Orleans: 73.8%
Steals (L5) +52.2% more
New Orleans: 11.1 vs Houston: 7.3
Assists (L5) +21.5% more
New Orleans: 27.5 vs Houston: 22.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 109.1 128
NO Score 106.1 111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.4 / 30.6 32.4 / 38.3
Assists 27.5 / 22.7 29.0 / 19.0
Blocks 5.9 / 6.3 2.0 / 9.0
Field Goal % 44.0 / 45.4 43.4 / 47.4
Free Throw % 73.8 / 79.3 72.2 / 78.3
Rebounding 42.9 / 51.7 44.0 / 54.0
Steals 11.1 / 7.3 12.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 15.6 / 14.9 16.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
HOU
NO
HOU
ML
62% 98-61
61% 69-44
58% 48-35
59% 51-35
ATS
68% 107-51-1
62% 70-43
58% 48-35
59% 51-35
TTL
75% 119-40
51% 58-55
100% 83-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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