MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
21-10 | Road
132
NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
5-26 | Home
124
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
PELICANS
100%
GRIZZLIES
--
PELICANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
MEM By 1-7 points
27.2%
MEM By 8-14 points
23.0%
NO By 1-7 points
18.6%
NO By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
119.84
MEMPHIS
New Orleans
114.86
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
Memphis
MEMPHIS
New Orleans
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 234.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 30, 2026
MEM @ NO
106 - 114
Jan 23, 2026
NO @ MEM
133 - 127
Nov 26, 2025
MEM @ NO
133 - 128
Oct 22, 2025
NO @ MEM
122 - 128
Mar 9, 2025
MEM @ NO
107 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+21.8% more
Memphis: 5.9
vs
New Orleans: 4.6
Rebounding (L5)
+21.1% more
Memphis: 54.9
vs
New Orleans: 43.3
Assists (L5)
+13.7% more
Memphis: 32.5
vs
New Orleans: 28.0
Turnovers (L5)
+13.6% more
Memphis: 18.2
vs
New Orleans: 15.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
119.8
132
NO Score
114.9
124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.7 / 41.4
28.9 / 41.5
Assists
28.0 / 32.5
30.0 / 30.0
Blocks
4.6 / 5.9
10.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
43.8 / 48.5
44.8 / 47.2
Free Throw %
73.3 / 73.6
93.1 / 88.6
Rebounding
43.3 / 54.9
45.0 / 42.0
Steals
11.4 / 9.5
13.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
15.8 / 18.2
17.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
NO
Advantage
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
MEM
NO
MEM
ML
62%
98-61
57%
59-44
58%
48-35
50%
41-41
ATS
68%
107-51-1
63%
65-38
58%
48-35
50%
41-41
TTL
75%
119-40
70%
71-31-1
100%
83-0
100%
82-0
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