DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
17-13 | Road
132
UTAH
JAZZUTAH
7-23 | Home
121
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
JAZZ
100%
NUGGETS
--
JAZZ
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.2
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.2 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -8.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DEN By 1-7 points
25.1%
DEN By 8-14 points
26.4%
UTAH By 1-7 points
13.4%
UTAH By 8-14 points
4.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
121.83
DENVER
Utah
113.61
UTAH
Simulated Score
Denver
DENVER
Utah
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 235.4
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
DEN @ UTAH
130 - 117
Mar 27, 2026
UTAH @ DEN
129 - 135
Mar 2, 2026
DEN @ UTAH
128 - 125
Dec 22, 2025
UTAH @ DEN
112 - 135
Mar 28, 2025
UTAH @ DEN
93 - 129
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+20.5% more
Denver: 7.7
vs
Utah: 6.1
Assists (L5)
+17.1% more
Denver: 31.5
vs
Utah: 26.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.5%
Denver: 53.5%
vs
Utah: 47.0%
Turnovers (L5)
+34.0% more
Utah: 18.9
vs
Denver: 14.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
121.8
132
UTAH Score
113.6
121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.6 / 41.8
34.2 / 30.0
Assists
26.1 / 31.5
28.0 / 38.0
Blocks
4.9 / 4.4
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.0 / 53.5
51.2 / 50.5
Free Throw %
76.0 / 77.4
90.9 / 89.5
Rebounding
47.5 / 42.7
37.0 / 51.0
Steals
6.1 / 7.7
6.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
18.9 / 14.1
16.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
UTAH
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
UTAH
41-41-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2%
Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
DEN
UTAH
DEN
ML
60%
96-63
54%
57-48
48%
40-43
55%
47-39
ATS
68%
108-51
63%
65-38-2
48%
40-43
55%
47-39
TTL
75%
119-39-1
54%
56-48-1
100%
83-0
100%
86-0
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