UTAH
JAZZUTAH
7-25 | Road
136
MIAMI
HEATMIA
17-15 | Home
100
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
100%
HEAT
0%
JAZZ
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.5
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -3.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
UTAH By 1-7 points
20.9%
UTAH By 8-14 points
10.0%
MIA By 1-7 points
27.3%
MIA By 8-14 points
20.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Utah
110.56
UTAH
Miami
114.07
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Utah
UTAH
Miami
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.5
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 224.6
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 9, 2026
UTAH @ MIA
115 - 111
Jan 24, 2026
MIA @ UTAH
147 - 116
Jan 9, 2025
MIA @ UTAH
97 - 92
Jan 4, 2025
UTAH @ MIA
136 - 100
Mar 2, 2024
UTAH @ MIA
120 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+13.0% more
Miami: 28.8
vs
Utah: 25.5
Steals (L5)
+10.3% more
Miami: 7.1
vs
Utah: 6.4
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.9%
Miami: 50.7%
vs
Utah: 45.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.1%
Miami: 38.8%
vs
Utah: 35.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score
110.6
136
MIA Score
114.1
100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.8 / 35.7
25.7 / 41.3
Assists
28.8 / 25.5
25.0 / 31.0
Blocks
3.8 / 4.6
7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
50.7 / 45.8
43.8 / 52.0
Free Throw %
82.7 / 80.7
70.0 / 81.3
Rebounding
41.3 / 44.3
32.0 / 57.0
Steals
7.1 / 6.4
9.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
14.8 / 17.6
15.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH
41-41-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2%
Total +/-: +5.7
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
UTAH
MIA
UTAH
ML
48%
46-50
60%
96-63
59%
48-34
48%
40-43
ATS
51%
49-47
68%
108-51
59%
48-34
48%
40-43
TTL
59%
57-39
75%
119-39-1
100%
82-0
100%
83-0
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